UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Copenhagen, Denmark
28 Sept 2019
Lightweight
VS
96%
Madsen
4%
Belluardo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:12
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Madsen
Madsen is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Madsen has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.
Striking split: Madsen throws more volume but Belluardo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Madsen's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Belluardo has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Madsen
Belluardo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+74"
41
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Madsen
Belluardo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.0
1.6
46.9
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
79
Momentum Score
0
Madsen
Belluardo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
1Clinch0
21Ground0
Madsen
Belluardo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Madsen
Belluardo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
56
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/14 fights
Chin rating based on
2/17 fights
Madsen
Belluardo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Madsen
Belluardo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Madsen
Belluardo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MadsenBelluardo
Strike Zones
Madsen
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedBelluardo
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Madsen targets the head (100% of attacks) — Belluardo absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Madsen
RND
Belluardo
0/0R00/0
Madsen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Belluardo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Madsen · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jared GordonRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
Belluardo · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Mark MadsenRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · KO · R2
Joel AlvarezRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06