UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Atlantic City, USA
30 Mar 2024
Featherweight
VS
54%
Arce
46%
Burns
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:00
Julio
Julio Arce
19 – 6
5'7"70" reachSouthpaw36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 49
Herbert
Herbert Burns
"The Blaze"
11 – 6
Pressure Fighter4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'9"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arce

This is a genuine toss-up — Arce at 54% vs Burns at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Burns has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Striking split: Arce throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Burns has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Arce
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+73"
36+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Arce
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.4
42.8
49.5
Performance Avg
47.5
43
Quality of Victory
57
65
Momentum Score
39
Arce
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.6
36%
Strike Accuracy
42%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
2
4
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance3
8Clinch1
0Ground0
Arce
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Arce
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
12
Moderate
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Arce
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Arce
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arce
Burns
Striking6.2 / 5.7Volume3.9 / 0.7Grappling2.1 / 4.0Wrestling1.5 / 2.8Submission1.7 / 5.0Pressure6.5 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Arce
Strike Zones
Burns
Arce
Attacking
14HEAD4BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Burns
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD4BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arce targets the head (74% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (50% of attacks) — Arce absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arce
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Arce · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.7W5.6L5.2W4.1L5.5W6.4L5.6W2018-012019-052021-112024-03
WinLossTrend

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.7W5.0W3.6L3.0L3.5L4.8L2020-012020-062020-082022-072024-032024-08
WinLossTrend

Arce · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Herbert BurnsRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Daniel SantosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · KO · R2
Song YadongRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · KO · R2
Andre EwellRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jack JenkinsRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Julio ArceRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Bill AlgeoRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Daniel PinedaRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · Sub · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06

News & Media

Julio Arce · Herbert Burns
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