★ Championship Bout · Interim Featherweight
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2016
Interim Featherweight
VS
75%
Holloway
25%
Pettis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holloway
Holloway is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Pettis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pettis has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holloway
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
69"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
18.8
56.8
Performance Avg
52.6
47
Quality of Victory
51
63
Momentum Score
72
Holloway
Pettis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
10 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
8
15
Body
9
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
37Distance19
8Clinch0
0Ground0
Holloway
Pettis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holloway
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.7 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
20/34 fights
Holloway
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
72
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Holloway
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
64%
10
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Pettis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
HollowayPettis
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
45 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedPettis
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
45 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (62% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the body (47% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03