UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites
Glasgow, United Kingdom
18 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
84%
Edwards
16%
Pawlak
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edwards
Edwards is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Edwards has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Edwards has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Edwards
Pawlak
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"+
Reach
73"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Pawlak
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
10.9
51.1
Performance Avg
28.3
36
Quality of Victory
25
95
Momentum Score
27
Edwards
Pawlak
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
30%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
1
2
Body
4
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance5
2Clinch1
8Ground0
Edwards
Pawlak
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Pawlak
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
3/15 fights
Edwards
Pawlak
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
27
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Edwards
Pawlak
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Pawlak
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
EdwardsPawlak
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedPawlak
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (81% of attacks) — Pawlak absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Pawlak targets the body (67% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Pawlak
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Pawlak · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Pawlak · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · 2015-07
W · Dec · R3
Sheldon WestcottRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05