UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Las Vegas, USA
7 Dec 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
49%
Reyes
51%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:46
Dominick
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
16 – 5
6'4"77" reachSouthpaw36 yrsStriker
CFR 56
Anthony
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'4"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smith

This is a genuine toss-up — Reyes at 49% vs Smith at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Reyes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Reyes's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Reyes
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
77"+
Reach
76"
36+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Reyes
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
58.3
56.3
Performance Avg
50.7
49
Quality of Victory
50
71
Momentum Score
100
Reyes
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.3
55%
Strike Accuracy
52%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
72
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
16Clinch0
56Ground0
Reyes
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Reyes
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Reyes
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
100
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Reyes
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
77%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Reyes
Smith
Striking7.3 / 4.9Volume3.7 / 2.3Grappling1.5 / 3.5Wrestling1.1 / 2.4Submission1.0 / 3.9Pressure6.9 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
Reyes
Strike Zones
Smith
Reyes
Attacking
72HEAD0BODY1LEGS73 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Smith
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
72HEAD0BODY1LEGS73 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Reyes targets the head (99% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 99% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Reyes
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0

Reyes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.0W6.0W5.1W5.3W5.8W7.3L2.7L3.8L1.9L6.4W6.4W6.2W3.4L5.3W2017-062019-032021-052025-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0101.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.5W5.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W6.0W7.3L5.4W4.4L5.6L5.0W5.5W5.4W4.3L6.3L4.9W4.9L6.1W6.9L3.8L3.5L2013-062018-062020-112024-052025-04
WinLossTrend

Reyes · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R2
Anthony SmithRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06

Smith · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12

News & Media

Dominick Reyes · Anthony Smith
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