UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
Las Vegas, USA
2 Mar 2019
Welterweight
VS
69%
Lawler
31%
Askren
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lawler
Lawler holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Askren has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lawler has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lawler's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Askren has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lawler
Askren
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
73"
44
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lawler
Askren
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
18.6
51.0
Performance Avg
45.7
45
Quality of Victory
54
90
Momentum Score
52
Lawler
Askren
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
8 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
0
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
9Clinch0
16Ground0
Lawler
Askren
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lawler
Askren
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/46 fights
Chin rating based on
3/21 fights
Lawler
Askren
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
52
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Lawler
Askren
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
100%
8
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lawler
Askren
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
LawlerAskren
Strike Zones
Lawler
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedAskren
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lawler targets the head (81% of attacks) — Askren absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lawler
RND
Askren
0/0R00/0
Lawler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Askren · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.2WinLossTrend
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
Askren · Last 3
L · Sub · R3
Demian MaiaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Sub · R1
Robbie LawlerRating 5.3Submission
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03