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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2
Natal, Brazil
23 Mar 2014
Light Heavyweight
VS
72%
Rua
28%
Henderson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:31
MR
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27 – 14
6'1"76" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideStriker
CFR 35
DH
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
32 – 15
Well-Rounded55 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 14
★ Official Result
Dan HendersonwinsKO/TKOR3 · 1:31
def. Mauricio Rua · UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rua
→
Actual result
Henderson wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Rua is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rua has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Rua's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Henderson has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
RuaHenderson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rua
Henderson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
74"
44+
Age
55
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rua
Henderson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
13.8
49.7
Performance Avg
49.5
51
Quality of Victory
49
46
Momentum Score
20
Rua
Henderson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
0.7
55%
Strike Accuracy
46%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
8 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance3
0Clinch1
0Ground4
Rua
Henderson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rua
Henderson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
2
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/41 fights
Chin rating based on
18/47 fights
Rua
Henderson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
20
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Rua
Henderson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
44%
8
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rua
Henderson
Striking8.2 / 5.4Volume3.1 / 5.4Grappling0.7 / 1.3Wrestling0.5 / 0.9Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.4
Rua
Strike Zones
Henderson
Rua
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Henderson
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rua targets the head (83% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Henderson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rua absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rua
RND
Henderson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rua · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.0L5.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W4.5L5.0W5.5L5.4W5.5L1.5L5.0W2.8L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.5W2.7L6.5W4.5W3.5L6.1L1.5L2007-092011-082014-032018-122023-01
WinLossTrend

Henderson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.2W4.2W5.5L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L5.2W4.0L1.5L5.0W1.5L5.2W5.5L1998-052009-012013-112015-112016-10
WinLossTrend

Rua · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ihor PotieriaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Upcoming
Paul Craig
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11

Henderson · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R2
Hector LombardRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R1
Vitor BelfortRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · KO · R1
Gegard MousasiRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

News & Media

Mauricio Rua · Dan Henderson
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