UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Catch Weight
VS
45%
Aldana
55%
Chiasson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiasson
This is a genuine toss-up — Aldana at 45% vs Chiasson at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Chiasson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Aldana throws more volume but Chiasson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Chiasson has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aldana
Chiasson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
68"
Reach
+72"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldana
Chiasson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.5
61.5
46.5
Performance Avg
53.0
39
Quality of Victory
50
81
Momentum Score
96
Aldana
Chiasson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance9
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Aldana
Chiasson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aldana
Chiasson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
58
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
14/17 fights
Aldana
Chiasson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
96
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · Sub · R1
Aldana
Chiasson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aldana
Chiasson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
AldanaChiasson
Strike Zones
Aldana
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedChiasson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aldana targets the head (67% of attacks) — Chiasson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Chiasson targets the head (78% of attacks) — Aldana absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aldana
RND
Chiasson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Aldana · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Chiasson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Aldana · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontRating 6Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 5.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · KO · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · KO · R1
Yana SantosRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
Chiasson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · R2
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 4.9UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Pannie KianzadRating 5Submission
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