UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
Las Vegas, USA
12 Oct 2024
Lightweight
VS
56%
Dawson
44%
Garcia
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:42
Grant
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
24 – 3
5'10"72" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 64
Rafa
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
19 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak31 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dawson

This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 56% vs Garcia at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Garcia throws more volume but Dawson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dawson
Garcia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
70"
32
Age
+31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Dawson
Garcia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
50.6
57.5
Performance Avg
44.7
39
Quality of Victory
32
100
Momentum Score
75
Dawson
Garcia
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.5
53%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
1
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
21Ground0
Dawson
Garcia
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dawson
Garcia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
11/23 fights
Dawson
Garcia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
75
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Dawson
Garcia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dawson
Garcia
Striking3.4 / 2.7Volume5.0 / 7.0Grappling4.3 / 2.9Wrestling3.0 / 2.0Submission4.2 / 1.4Pressure6.7 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Dawson
Strike Zones
Garcia
Dawson
Attacking
22HEAD1BODY1LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Garcia
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD1BODY1LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (92% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Garcia targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dawson
RND
Garcia
0/0R00/0

Dawson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.7W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.6W5.9W5.7W4.5W2.2L5.2W6.0W5.5W3.6L6.1W2019-032021-032023-102025-122026-05
WinLossTrend

Garcia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.2L5.5L4.5W5.2W6.5L4.8W5.0W4.2L4.7W5.9W5.4W2021-032022-042023-042025-092026-04
WinLossTrend

Dawson · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Garcia · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Grant DawsonRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

News & Media

Grant Dawson · Rafa Garcia
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