UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
14 Dec 2019
Welterweight
VS
73%
Brown
27%
Saunders
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:55
MB
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26 – 19
6'0"75" reachOrthodox45 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 43
BS
Ben Saunders
"Killa B"
22 – 13
Well-Rounded4-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'2"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brown

Brown is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Saunders has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brown
Saunders
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
+77"
45
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Saunders
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
15.6
54.0
Performance Avg
46.4
52
Quality of Victory
46
78
Momentum Score
50
Brown
Saunders
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.5
60%
Strike Accuracy
55%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
13 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
1
1
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance3
2Clinch0
16Ground0
Brown
Saunders
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
1.2
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brown
Saunders
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.9 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
19/35 fights
Brown
Saunders
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
50
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Brown
Saunders
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
67%
13
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brown
Saunders
Striking8.8 / 4.3Volume2.1 / 3.6Grappling1.2 / 3.5Wrestling0.8 / 2.4Submission1.2 / 3.3Pressure7.9 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Brown
Strike Zones
Saunders
Brown
Attacking
23HEAD1BODY1LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Saunders
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD1BODY1LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (92% of attacks) — Saunders absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Saunders targets the body (67% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brown
RND
Saunders
0/0R00/0

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.2W5.0W5.5W2.8L2.8L2.8L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.8L5.5L5.1W4.0L1.5L4.0L5.0W5.2W3.3L5.5L5.2W5.9L5.2W2008-062011-062014-052019-122023-05
WinLossTrend

Saunders · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W5.2W5.0W2.8L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W2.8L4.7W2.8L2.8L5.0W2.8L1.5L2.9L3.1L2007-122010-032016-012018-092019-12
WinLossTrend

Brown · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

Saunders · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Matt BrownRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · KO · R2
Takashi SatoRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
L · KO · R1
Lyman GoodRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
L · Sub · R2
Sergio MoraesRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · KO · R1
Jake EllenbergerRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06

News & Media

Matt Brown · Ben Saunders
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