UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
Ledyard, USA
5 Sept 2014
Middleweight
VS
51%
Natal
49%
Camozzi
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RN
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21 – 9
6'0"77" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
CC
Chris Camozzi
24 – 13
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Natal

This is a genuine toss-up — Natal at 51% vs Camozzi at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Camozzi throws more volume but Natal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Camozzi has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Natal
Camozzi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
77"+
Reach
75"
43
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Natal
Camozzi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
14.4
40.5
Performance Avg
37.6
30
Quality of Victory
31
81
Momentum Score
63
Natal
Camozzi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
32
3
Body
4
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
8Distance39
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Natal
Camozzi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Natal
Camozzi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
40
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
19/37 fights
Natal
Camozzi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
63
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Natal
Camozzi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
22%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Natal
Camozzi
Striking2.2 / 2.1Volume7.3 / 6.3Grappling2.8 / 2.5Wrestling1.9 / 1.7Submission1.1 / 1.1Pressure3.2 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Natal
Strike Zones
Camozzi
Natal
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY4LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
32HEAD4BODY5LEGS41 absorbed
Camozzi
Attacking
32HEAD4BODY5LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY4LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Camozzi absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Camozzi targets the head (78% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Natal
RND
Camozzi
0/0R00/0

Natal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.7L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.4L1.5L2.3L2010-092013-012014-052016-012017-07
WinLossTrend

Camozzi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L6.9W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W4.0L5.5L5.5L2010-062012-062014-072016-052017-05
WinLossTrend

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

Camozzi · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Sub · R3
Thales LeitesRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Vitor MirandaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · KO · R1
Joe RiggsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02

News & Media

Rafael Natal · Chris Camozzi
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