UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
Las Vegas, USA
20 Feb 2021
Bantamweight
VS
36%
Wineland
64%
Castaneda
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:44
EW
Eddie Wineland
24 – 16
5'7"69" reachOrthodox41 yrs3-fight slideStriker
CFR 28
John
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
21 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsSwitch71" reach5'6"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Castaneda

Castaneda holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Wineland has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Wineland has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Castaneda has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Wineland's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Wineland
Castaneda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
69"
Reach
+71"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Wineland
Castaneda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
51.0
45.0
Performance Avg
43.2
50
Quality of Victory
39
78
Momentum Score
71
Wineland
Castaneda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.1
32%
Strike Accuracy
55%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
23
3
Body
4
4
Leg
15
RangeRange
16Distance34
0Clinch2
1Ground6
Wineland
Castaneda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wineland
Castaneda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
72
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/40 fights
Chin rating based on
9/29 fights
Wineland
Castaneda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
71
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Wineland
Castaneda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Wineland
Castaneda
Striking9.1 / 3.5Volume2.1 / 5.0Grappling0.4 / 3.2Wrestling0.3 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure7.0 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Wineland
Strike Zones
Castaneda
Wineland
Attacking
10HEAD3BODY4LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD4BODY15LEGS42 absorbed
Castaneda
Attacking
23HEAD4BODY15LEGS42 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD3BODY4LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Wineland targets the head (59% of attacks) — Castaneda absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Castaneda targets the head (55% of attacks) — Wineland absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Wineland
RND
Castaneda
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Wineland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W2.1L5.2W1.5L5.5L5.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.2W3.0L2.3L1.5L2011-032013-092016-072019-062022-06
WinLossTrend

Castaneda · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.3L5.0W5.5W3.8L4.5W5.4W6.8L6.0L2020-072022-022023-062024-062025-04
WinLossTrend

Wineland · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Cody StamannRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
John CastanedaRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · KO · R2
Grigory PopovRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07

Castaneda · Last 5

Upcoming
Mark Vologdin
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Daniel MarcosRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Muin GafurovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06

News & Media

Eddie Wineland · John Castaneda
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