UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Light Heavyweight
VS
73%
Lima
27%
Kimball
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lima
Lima is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kimball has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Kimball throws more volume but Lima connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lima's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kimball has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lima
Kimball
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
75"+
Reach
72"
40
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Lima
Kimball
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.3
17.7
53.8
Performance Avg
46.0
49
Quality of Victory
60
59
Momentum Score
43
Lima
Kimball
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
3.0
60%
Strike Accuracy
47%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
2
Body
1
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance5
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Lima
Kimball
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lima
Kimball
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Lima
Kimball
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Lima
Kimball
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lima
Kimball
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
LimaKimball
Strike Zones
Lima
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedKimball
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lima targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kimball absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Kimball targets the head (60% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lima
RND
Kimball
0/0R00/0
Lima · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Kimball · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Lima · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Kimball · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Darko StosicRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
L · Sub · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5Submission
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
W · KO · R1
Josh StansburyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01