UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson
London, United Kingdom
21 Feb 2009
Middleweight
VS
72%
Maia
28%
Sonnen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:37
DM
Demian Maia
28 – 11
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw48 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
CS
Chael Sonnen
29 – 15
Well-Rounded49 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'1"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Maia

Maia is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Sonnen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sonnen has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Maia
Sonnen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
72"
Reach
+73"
48+
Age
49
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Maia
Sonnen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.4
12.8
50.8
Performance Avg
40.4
40
Quality of Victory
34
100
Momentum Score
45
Maia
Sonnen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
41%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance7
0Clinch0
1Ground1
Maia
Sonnen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maia
Sonnen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
14/44 fights
Maia
Sonnen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Maia
Sonnen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
11
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maia
Sonnen
Striking1.8 / 1.0Volume5.0 / 6.7Grappling5.1 / 4.0Wrestling3.6 / 2.8Submission5.0 / 2.9Pressure5.8 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Maia
Strike Zones
Sonnen
Maia
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Sonnen
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (83% of attacks) — Sonnen absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Sonnen targets the head (63% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maia
RND
Sonnen
0/0R00/0

Maia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.4W5.5W5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.3L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.9W5.6W5.9W5.0W4.5W5.5L6.8L6.6L5.0W4.5W5.2W1.7L6.6L2007-102010-122014-052018-052021-06
WinLossTrend

Sonnen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0102.8L4.5W2.8L1.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L5.2W4.5W2.1L3.3L5.0W1.5L2005-102009-052011-102013-082013-11
WinLossTrend

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

Sonnen · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Rashad EvansRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
W · Sub · R1
Mauricio RuaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · KO · R1
Jon JonesRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · KO · R2
Anderson SilvaRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01

News & Media

Demian Maia · Chael Sonnen
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