UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
Goiania, Brazil
30 May 2015
Featherweight
VS
36%
Jason
64%
Jackson
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jackson
Jackson holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Jason has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jason has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Striking split: Jackson throws more volume but Jason connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Jackson has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jason
Jackson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
73"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Jason
Jackson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.8
40.5
60.4
Performance Avg
43.0
67
Quality of Victory
38
72
Momentum Score
59
Jason
Jackson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
3
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
3Clinch2
0Ground3
Jason
Jackson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jason
Jackson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
28
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
Jason
Jackson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
59
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Jason
Jackson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jason
Jackson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
JasonJackson
Strike Zones
Jason
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedJackson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jason targets the body (60% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Jackson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jason absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jason
RND
Jackson
0/0R00/0
Jason · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Jackson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Jason · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jeremy KennedyRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08
Upcoming
Damon JacksonUFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · 2015-05
L · Dec · R3
Robert PeraltaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
W · KO · R1
Steven SilerRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · 2014-03
Jackson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Dan IgeRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
