UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Lightweight
VS
57%
Gaethje
43%
Chandler
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 57% vs Chandler at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chandler has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gaethje
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
+71"
37+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gaethje
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
50.3
63.6
Performance Avg
45.9
62
Quality of Victory
58
100
Momentum Score
46
Gaethje
Chandler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.9
62%
Strike Accuracy
57%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
18
2
Body
11
9
Leg
1
RangeRange
36Distance29
1Clinch1
1Ground0
Gaethje
Chandler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gaethje
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
40
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/32 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Gaethje
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Gaethje
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaethje
Chandler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
GaethjeChandler
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedChandler
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (71% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaethje
RND
Chandler
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Chandler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Chandler · Last 5
Upcoming
Mauricio RuffyUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05