METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Lightweight
VS
59%
Gaethje
41%
Chandler
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Justin GaethjewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Michael Chandler · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Gaethje wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 59% vs Chandler at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chandler has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GaethjeChandler
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gaethje
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
+71"
37+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gaethje
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
67.6
47.8
65.5
Performance Avg
44.5
63
Quality of Victory
58
100
Momentum Score
46
Gaethje
Chandler
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.7
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
6.5
Style: Pressure
7.8
4.3
Style: Volume
0.5
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
18
2
Body
11
9
Leg
1
RangeRange
36Distance29
1Clinch1
1Ground0
Gaethje
Chandler
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gaethje
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/32 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Gaethje
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Gaethje
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaethje
Chandler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
GaethjeChandler
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedChandler
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (71% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaethje
RND
Chandler
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gaethje · Last 5
W · KO · R4
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Chandler · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettKO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraDecision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05