UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
2 Jan 2016
Lightweight
VS
34%
Holtzman
66%
Dober
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dober
Dober holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Holtzman has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dober has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Dober throws more volume but Holtzman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holtzman's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dober has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holtzman
Dober
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
+70"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holtzman
Dober
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.5
59.9
40.6
Performance Avg
53.2
32
Quality of Victory
50
53
Momentum Score
100
Holtzman
Dober
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.9
51%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
10
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance8
6Clinch1
1Ground2
Holtzman
Dober
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holtzman
Dober
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
27/44 fights
Holtzman
Dober
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Holtzman
Dober
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
11
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holtzman
Dober
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
HoltzmanDober
Strike Zones
Holtzman
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedDober
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holtzman targets the head (93% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Dober targets the head (91% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holtzman
RND
Dober
0/0R00/0
Holtzman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
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L · KO · R2
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L · KO · R1
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W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
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W · R2
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Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
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