METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Montreal, Canada
10 May 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
73%
Stirling
27%
Erslan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Navajo StirlingwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Ivan Erslan · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Stirling
→
Actual result
Stirling wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Stirling is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Stirling has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StirlingErslan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Stirling
Erslan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
72"
28+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stirling
Erslan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
71.1
26.3
64.5
Performance Avg
25.0
41
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
17
Stirling
Erslan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.0
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
6.5
Style: Pressure
0.8
6.0
Style: Volume
8.5
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
48
Head
10
7
Body
3
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
34Distance13
3Clinch0
23Ground0
Stirling
Erslan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Stirling
Erslan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/9 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Stirling
Erslan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
17
6-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Stirling
Erslan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stirling
Erslan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
StirlingErslan
Strike Zones
Stirling
Attacking
60 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedErslan
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
60 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stirling targets the head (80% of attacks) — Erslan absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Erslan targets the head (77% of attacks) — Stirling absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stirling
RND
Erslan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Stirling · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Jan BlachowiczKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08
W · KO · R2
Ion CutelabaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Bruno LopesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Rodolfo BellatoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ivan ErslanDecision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
Erslan · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Tuco TokkosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Navajo StirlingDecision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09