UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Montreal, Canada
10 May 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
71%
Stirling
29%
Erslan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Navajo
Navajo Stirling
9 – 0
6'4"79" reachOrthodox28 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 66
Ivan
Ivan Erslan
15 – 6
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'2"
CFR 26

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stirling

Stirling is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Stirling has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Stirling
Erslan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
72"
28+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stirling
Erslan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.7
26.3
59.5
Performance Avg
25.0
33
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
17
Stirling
Erslan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
0.6
56%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
48
Head
10
7
Body
3
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
34Distance13
3Clinch0
23Ground0
Stirling
Erslan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Stirling
Erslan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/9 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Stirling
Erslan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
17
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Stirling
Erslan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stirling
Erslan
Striking4.5 / 0.5Volume8.0 / 8.5Grappling1.8 / 2.4Wrestling1.3 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.8 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Stirling
Strike Zones
Erslan
Stirling
Attacking
48HEAD7BODY5LEGS60 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD3BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Erslan
Attacking
10HEAD3BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
48HEAD7BODY5LEGS60 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stirling targets the head (80% of attacks) — Erslan absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Erslan targets the head (77% of attacks) — Stirling absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stirling
RND
Erslan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Stirling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W4.5W6.2W5.2W2024-122025-052025-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Erslan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.8L7.0L3.0L5.2W2024-092025-052025-092026-05
WinLossTrend

Stirling · Last 5

Upcoming
Ion Cutelaba
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Bruno LopesRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Rodolfo BellatoRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ivan ErslanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Tuco TokkosRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

Erslan · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Tuco TokkosRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteRating 3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Navajo StirlingRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Navajo Stirling · Ivan Erslan
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