★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 16 Welterweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Ultimate Fighter 16 Welterweight Tournament
VS
63%
Smith
37%
Ricci
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
Smith holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Ricci has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 75 points.
Striking split: Ricci throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith
Ricci
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
71"
Reach
+76"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Smith
Ricci
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
11.8
70.0
Performance Avg
28.3
100
Quality of Victory
25
28
Momentum Score
40
Smith
Ricci
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
0.4
45%
Strike Accuracy
30%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
1
Body
1
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
2Clinch0
2Ground0
Smith
Ricci
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
1.0
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Ricci
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Smith
Ricci
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
40
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Smith
Ricci
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Ricci
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
SmithRicci
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedRicci
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Ricci absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ricci targets the body (50% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Ricci
0/0R00/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Ricci · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Diego FerreiraRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
W · Dec · R3
Mike RicciRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
Ricci · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Myles JuryRating 5.5Decision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Colin FletcherRating 4.5Decision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
L · Dec · R3
Colton SmithRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12