METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 16 Welterweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Ultimate Fighter 16 Welterweight Tournament
VS
63%
Smith
37%
Ricci
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Colton SmithwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Mike Ricci · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smith
→
Actual result
Smith wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Smith holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Ricci has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 75 points.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmithRicci
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smith
Ricci
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
71"
Reach
+76"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Smith
Ricci
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
11.8
70.0
Performance Avg
28.3
100
Quality of Victory
25
28
Momentum Score
40
Smith
Ricci
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
1.0
8.5
Style: Volume
8.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
1
Body
1
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
2Clinch0
2Ground0
Smith
Ricci
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Ricci
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Smith
Ricci
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
40
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Smith
Ricci
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Ricci
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
SmithRicci
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedRicci
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Ricci absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ricci targets the body (50% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Ricci
0/0R00/0
Smith · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Diego FerreiraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R3
Robert WhittakerKO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
W · Dec · R3
Mike RicciDecision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
Ricci · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Myles JuryDecision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Colin FletcherDecision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
L · Dec · R3
Colton SmithDecision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12