UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
23 Jan 2021
Lightweight
VS
64%
Tsarukyan
36%
Frevola
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Arman
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
23 – 3
5'7"72" reachOrthodox29 yrs5-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 68
Matt
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
11 – 6
Striker3-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 39

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Frevola has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Frevola throws more volume but Tsarukyan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Frevola has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tsarukyan
Frevola
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
29+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tsarukyan
Frevola
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
67.5
38.6
58.4
Performance Avg
45.8
42
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
20
Tsarukyan
Frevola
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.9
55%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
4
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance3
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Tsarukyan
Frevola
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tsarukyan
Frevola
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
8
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/17 fights
Tsarukyan
Frevola
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Tsarukyan
Frevola
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tsarukyan
Frevola
Striking5.7 / 6.9Volume5.7 / 4.1Grappling2.0 / 1.0Wrestling1.4 / 0.7Submission1.0 / 0.0Pressure6.0 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.9
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Tsarukyan
Strike Zones
Frevola
Tsarukyan
Attacking
8HEAD4BODY3LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Frevola
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD4BODY3LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tsarukyan targets the head (53% of attacks) — Frevola absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Frevola targets the head (67% of attacks) — Tsarukyan absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tsarukyan
RND
Frevola
0/0R00/0

Tsarukyan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0107.5L4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W6.5W6.6L4.5W6.1W6.0W5.9W6.0W2019-042021-012022-062023-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Frevola · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0101.5L5.7W4.5W7.1L3.0L5.0W5.8W6.2W3.3L5.2L5.6L2018-012021-012022-112024-092025-10
WinLossTrend

Tsarukyan · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Dan HookerRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · KO · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Damir IsmagulovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

Frevola · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R3
Fares ZiamRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Arman Tsarukyan · Matt Frevola
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