UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
Vancouver, Canada
11 Jun 2011
Heavyweight
VS
59%
Beltran
41%
Rosa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Beltran
This is a genuine toss-up — Beltran at 59% vs Rosa at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Beltran has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Beltran throws more volume but Rosa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Beltran's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rosa has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Beltran
Rosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+77"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Beltran
Rosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.9
10.2
39.3
Performance Avg
28.3
43
Quality of Victory
25
33
Momentum Score
33
Beltran
Rosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
34%
Strike Accuracy
49%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
2
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance6
2Clinch0
7Ground0
Beltran
Rosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Beltran
Rosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/31 fights
Chin rating based on
3/24 fights
Beltran
Rosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
33
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Beltran
Rosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Beltran
Rosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
BeltranRosa
Strike Zones
Beltran
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedRosa
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Beltran targets the head (75% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Rosa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Beltran absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Beltran
RND
Rosa
0/0R00/0
Beltran · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Beltran · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Fabio MaldonadoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
Upcoming
Igor PokrajacUFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12
L · Dec · R3
James Te HunaRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · KO · R1
Lavar JohnsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01
L · Dec · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
Rosa · Last 3
L · KO · R1
James Te HunaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt LucasRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · KO · R3
Joey BeltranRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06