UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
7 Sept 2019
Middleweight
VS
42%
Akhmedov
58%
Cummings
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
OA
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
21 – 6
6'0"73" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 30
ZC
Zak Cummings
25 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak41 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'0"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cummings

This is a genuine toss-up — Akhmedov at 42% vs Cummings at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cummings has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Akhmedov's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Akhmedov
Cummings
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+75"
38+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Akhmedov
Cummings
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.2
42.5
47.0
Performance Avg
53.3
36
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
63
Akhmedov
Cummings
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.5
34%
Strike Accuracy
39%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
2
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance4
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Akhmedov
Cummings
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Akhmedov
Cummings
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
82
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
14/32 fights
Akhmedov
Cummings
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Akhmedov
Cummings
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Akhmedov
Cummings
Striking3.5 / 3.4Volume6.6 / 4.6Grappling2.5 / 4.2Wrestling1.7 / 2.9Submission1.1 / 4.0Pressure4.3 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Akhmedov
Strike Zones
Cummings
Akhmedov
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Cummings
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Akhmedov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Cummings absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Cummings targets the head (50% of attacks) — Akhmedov absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Akhmedov
RND
Cummings
0/0R00/0

Akhmedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W2.6L4.5W5.0W4.0L4.5L4.5W6.0W4.5W4.9W4.5W6.3L5.2W5.5L2013-112015-122019-032021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Cummings · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.5W3.8L5.0W4.8W6.0L5.2W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.7W5.5L4.5W5.7W2013-082016-042018-052020-082023-04
WinLossTrend

Akhmedov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Sub · R2
Tom BreeseRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09

Cummings · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Ed HermanRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R3
Trevin GilesRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12

News & Media

Omari Akhmedov · Zak Cummings
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