UFC 88: Breakthrough
Atlanta, USA
6 Sept 2008
Welterweight
VS
39%
Chonan
61%
Carneiro
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RC
Ryo Chonan
"Piranah"
22 – 13
5'9"70" reachOrthodox49 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 10
RC
Roan Carneiro
"Jucao"
21 – 11
Well-Rounded47 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carneiro

Carneiro holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Chonan has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Carneiro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Striking split: Chonan throws more volume but Carneiro connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Carneiro has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Chonan
Carneiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+76"
49
Age
+47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chonan
Carneiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.3
16.1
25.0
Performance Avg
41.6
25
Quality of Victory
40
28
Momentum Score
59
Chonan
Carneiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
4
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance0
1Clinch1
5Ground4
Chonan
Carneiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chonan
Carneiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/35 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Chonan
Carneiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Chonan
Carneiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chonan
Carneiro
Striking0.5 / 3.4Volume8.5 / 4.9Grappling2.4 / 3.2Wrestling1.7 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure0.8 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Chonan
Strike Zones
Carneiro
Chonan
Attacking
3HEAD4BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Carneiro
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD4BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chonan targets the body (40% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Carneiro targets the head (80% of attacks) — Chonan absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chonan
RND
Carneiro
0/0R00/0

Chonan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L2007-112008-092008-122009-04
WinLossTrend

Carneiro · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L5.2W2.8L5.5L5.0W1.8L4.5W5.5L2007-042008-062016-022017-02
WinLossTrend

Chonan · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
TJ GrantRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04
L · Dec · R3
Brad BlackburnRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 · 2008-12
W · Dec · R3
Roan CarneiroRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09
L · Dec · R3
Karo ParisyanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11

Carneiro · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Sub · R1
Mark MunozRating 5
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Ryo ChonanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09

News & Media

Ryo Chonan · Roan Carneiro
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