METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 88: Breakthrough
Atlanta, USA
6 Sept 2008
Welterweight
VS
39%
Chonan
61%
Carneiro
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ryo ChonanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Roan Carneiro · UFC 88: Breakthrough
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Carneiro
→
Actual result
Chonan wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Carneiro holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Chonan has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Carneiro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Carneiro has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ChonanCarneiro
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Chonan
Carneiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+76"
49
Age
+48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chonan
Carneiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.3
16.1
25.0
Performance Avg
41.6
25
Quality of Victory
40
28
Momentum Score
59
Chonan
Carneiro
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
4.8
8.5
Style: Volume
4.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
4
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance0
1Clinch1
5Ground4
Chonan
Carneiro
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chonan
Carneiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/35 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Chonan
Carneiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Chonan
Carneiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chonan
Carneiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
ChonanCarneiro
Strike Zones
Chonan
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCarneiro
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chonan targets the body (40% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Carneiro targets the head (80% of attacks) — Chonan absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chonan
RND
Carneiro
0/0R00/0
Chonan · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
TJ GrantDecision
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04
L · Dec · R3
Brad BlackburnDecision
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 · 2008-12
W · Dec · R3
Roan CarneiroDecision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09
L · Dec · R3
Karo ParisyanDecision
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11
Carneiro · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareDecision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Sub · R1
Mark MunozSubmission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Ryo ChonanDecision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09