UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
Houston, USA
7 Aug 2021
Bantamweight
VS
58%
Johns
42%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:16
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Johns
This is a genuine toss-up — Johns at 58% vs Santos at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Johns has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Johns's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johns
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
68"
Reach
+70"
32+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Johns
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.7
25.3
41.8
Performance Avg
42.4
33
Quality of Victory
54
10
Momentum Score
22
Johns
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
40%
Strike Accuracy
34%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
7
2
Body
0
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Johns
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johns
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Johns
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
22
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Johns
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johns
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
JohnsSantos
Strike Zones
Johns
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedSantos
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johns targets the head (79% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (70% of attacks) — Johns absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johns
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Johns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Johns · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Daniel MarcosRating 4Submission
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Santos · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Miles JohnsRating 4KO/TKO
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W · Sub · R1
Martin DayRating 5Submission
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