METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Oklahoma City, USA
25 Jun 2017
Lightweight
VS
70%
Guida
30%
Koch
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Clay GuidawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Erik Koch · UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Guida wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Guida is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Koch connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Koch has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaKoch
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Koch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Guida
Koch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
19.2
40.7
Performance Avg
46.3
35
Quality of Victory
44
78
Momentum Score
84
Guida
Koch
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
0.9
36%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
2
3
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
0Clinch0
13Ground0
Guida
Koch
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Koch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
10/22 fights
Guida
Koch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
84
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Guida
Koch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Koch
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
GuidaKoch
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedKoch
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (77% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Koch targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Koch
0/0R00/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Koch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Koch · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartRating 4.5Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05