UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Oklahoma City, USA
25 Jun 2017
Lightweight
VS
70%
Guida
30%
Koch
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
EK
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16 – 6
Well-Rounded37 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Koch connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Koch has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Koch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Guida
Koch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
19.2
40.7
Performance Avg
46.3
35
Quality of Victory
44
78
Momentum Score
84
Guida
Koch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.9
36%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
2
3
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
0Clinch0
13Ground0
Guida
Koch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Koch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
10/22 fights
Guida
Koch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
84
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Guida
Koch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Koch
Striking2.1 / 5.0Volume5.9 / 4.2Grappling3.7 / 2.6Wrestling2.6 / 1.8Submission2.8 / 2.0Pressure4.2 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Guida
Strike Zones
Koch
Guida
Attacking
10HEAD3BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Koch
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD3BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (77% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Koch targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Koch
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Koch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W4.5W2.8L6.8L5.0W1.5L5.2W6.0L6.2L4.5W2011-032013-082016-052019-07
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Koch · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05

News & Media

Clay Guida · Erik Koch
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