UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos
Las Vegas, USA
12 Aug 2023
Middleweight
VS
58%
Fremd
42%
Pickett
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fremd
This is a genuine toss-up — Fremd at 58% vs Pickett at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Fremd has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Pickett has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Fremd's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pickett has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Fremd
Pickett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
76"
Reach
+80"
32+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Fremd
Pickett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.1
24.1
35.7
Performance Avg
23.9
37
Quality of Victory
25
25
Momentum Score
45
Fremd
Pickett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.9
39%
Strike Accuracy
40%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
3
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance3
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Fremd
Pickett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fremd
Pickett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
26
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
9/24 fights
Fremd
Pickett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Fremd
Pickett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Fremd
Pickett
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.7
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
FremdPickett
Strike Zones
Fremd
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedPickett
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Fremd targets the body (43% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Pickett targets the head (60% of attacks) — Fremd absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Fremd
RND
Pickett
0/0R00/0
Fremd · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Pickett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Fremd · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Andre PetroskiRating 6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
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