UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2016
Heavyweight
VS
24%
Nelson
76%
Lewis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lewis
Lewis is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lewis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lewis has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Lewis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+79"
49
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Lewis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
59.2
55.6
Performance Avg
57.5
61
Quality of Victory
53
26
Momentum Score
84
Nelson
Lewis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
56%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
8 KOs
KO Finishes
16 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance6
2Clinch4
0Ground0
Nelson
Lewis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Lewis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
8
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.1 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
32/42 fights
Nelson
Lewis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
84
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Nelson
Lewis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
80%
8
KO / TKO Wins
16
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Lewis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
NelsonLewis
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedLewis
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Lewis targets the head (70% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Lewis
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Lewis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
Lewis · Last 5
Upcoming
Josh HokitUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11