Roy Nelson vs Derrick Lewis — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez

Las Vegas, USA

7 Jul 2016

Heavyweight

24%

Nelson

76%

Lewis

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Roy Nelson

"Big Country"

22 – 14

6'0"73" reachOrthodox50 yrsKnockout Artist

CFR 19

Derrick Lewis

"The Black Beast"

29 – 13

Knockout Artist2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'3"

CFR 59

★ Official Result

Derrick LewiswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Roy Nelson · UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Lewis

→

Actual result

Lewis wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Lewis is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lewis has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

NelsonLewis

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Nelson

Lewis

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'0"

Height

+6'3"

73"

Reach

+79"

Age

+41

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Nelson

Lewis

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

18.5

58.7

55.6

Performance Avg

56.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Nelson

Lewis

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

9.8

/ 10

9.3

/ 10

7.6

Style: Pressure

7.5

1.8

Style: Volume

2.9

8 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

16 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

0Distance6

2Clinch4

0Ground0

Nelson

Lewis

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

🥊

Pure striking matchup

Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history

Submission wins

Nelson

Lewis

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.1 stoppage

6 fights ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/36 fights

Chin rating based on

32/42 fights

Nelson

Lewis

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

Last 5

L · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

W · KO · R3

L · Dec · R5

Nelson

Lewis

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

89%

80%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson

Lewis

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

9.8

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

9.3

0.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.5

0.2

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.3

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

7.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.5

1.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.9

Nelson

Strike Zones

Lewis

Nelson

Attacking

2 landed

Absorbing

10 absorbed

Lewis

Attacking

10 landed

Absorbing

2 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Lewis targets the head (70% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson

RND

Lewis

0/0R00/0

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Alexander Volkov

Decision

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04

W · KO · R2

Antonio Silva

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09

L · Dec · R3

Derrick Lewis

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07

W · Dec · R3

Jared Rosholt

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02

L · Dec · R5

Josh Barnett

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

Lewis · Last 5

L · KO · R2

Josh Hokit

KO/TKO

UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06

L · KO · R2

Waldo Cortes Acosta

KO/TKO

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01

W · KO · R1

Tallison Teixeira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07

W · KO · R3

Rodrigo Nascimento

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

L · Dec · R5

Jailton Almeida

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

News & Media

Roy Nelson · Derrick Lewis

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