UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Las Vegas, USA
18 Nov 2023
Flyweight
VS
53%
Johnson
47%
Estevam
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Johnson
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 53% vs Estevam at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson
Estevam
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
69"
35
Age
+29
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Estevam
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.8
46.8
48.4
Performance Avg
45.0
43
Quality of Victory
25
75
Momentum Score
67
Johnson
Estevam
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
0.7
52%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
6
23
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
44Distance6
10Clinch3
0Ground0
Johnson
Estevam
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Estevam
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Johnson
Estevam
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
67
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Estevam
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Estevam
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.3
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.5
JohnsonEstevam
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
54 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedEstevam
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
54 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (56% of attacks) — Estevam absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Estevam targets the head (67% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Estevam
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Estevam · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
Upcoming
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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11