METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Las Vegas, USA
18 Nov 2023
Flyweight
VS
55%
Johnson
45%
Estevam
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Rafael EstevamwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Charles Johnson · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Johnson
→
Actual result
Estevam wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 55% vs Estevam at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonEstevam
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Estevam
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
69"
35
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Estevam
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.5
46.8
48.2
Performance Avg
45.0
43
Quality of Victory
25
96
Momentum Score
67
Johnson
Estevam
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.5
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
2.3
5.6
Style: Volume
9.5
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
6
23
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
44Distance6
10Clinch3
0Ground0
Johnson
Estevam
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johnson
Estevam
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Johnson
Estevam
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
96
67
W · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Estevam
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Estevam
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.3
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.5
JohnsonEstevam
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
54 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedEstevam
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
54 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (56% of attacks) — Estevam absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Estevam targets the head (67% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Estevam
0/0R00/0
Johnson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Eduardo ChapolinSubmission
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L · Sub · R3
Asu AlmabayevSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaDecision
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L · KO · R1
Alex PerezKO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Lone'er KavanaghKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
Estevam · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Ethyn EwingKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Felipe BunesDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Jesus AguilarDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11