UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
San Antonio, USA
28 Jun 2014
Lightweight
VS
41%
Ellenberger
59%
Moontasri
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JE
Joe Ellenberger
"Excalibur"
15 – 2
5'9"72" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
JM
James Moontasri
"Moon Walker"
9 – 5
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide38 yrsSwitch71" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moontasri

This is a genuine toss-up — Ellenberger at 41% vs Moontasri at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Moontasri has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.

Striking split: Moontasri throws more volume but Ellenberger connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Ellenberger
Moontasri
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
41
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Ellenberger
Moontasri
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.6
19.2
35.0
Performance Avg
46.2
25
Quality of Victory
55
55
Momentum Score
52
Ellenberger
Moontasri
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
0.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
41%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
1Clinch0
1Ground1
Ellenberger
Moontasri
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ellenberger
Moontasri
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
82
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/17 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Ellenberger
Moontasri
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
52
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Ellenberger
Moontasri
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ellenberger
Moontasri
Striking1.0 / 5.7Volume9.0 / 0.7Grappling2.4 / 4.0Wrestling1.7 / 2.8Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure1.5 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Ellenberger
Strike Zones
Moontasri
Ellenberger
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Moontasri
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (50% of attacks) — Moontasri absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Moontasri targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ellenberger
RND
Moontasri
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.4L2014-062014-12
WinLossTrend

Moontasri · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.2W1.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L2014-062015-022015-072015-112016-072016-12
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · Last 2

L · KO · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
W · Dec · R3
James MoontasriRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06

Moontasri · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
W · KO · R1
Anton ZafirRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Kevin LeeRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Cody PfisterRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02

News & Media

Joe Ellenberger · James Moontasri
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