METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Cleveland, USA
10 Sept 2016
Lightweight
VS
88%
Lentz
12%
McBride
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:17
★ Official Result
Nik LentzwinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:17
def. Michael McBride · UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lentz
→
Actual result
Lentz wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Lentz is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lentz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
McBride has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lentz's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LentzMcBride
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lentz
McBride
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'1"
68"
Reach
41
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lentz
McBride
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
2.1
45.3
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
53
Momentum Score
0
Lentz
McBride
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
8
2
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance9
0Clinch0
17Ground2
Lentz
McBride
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lentz
McBride
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/42 fights
Chin rating based on
2/11 fights
Lentz
McBride
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Lentz
McBride
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lentz
McBride
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
LentzMcBride
Strike Zones
Lentz
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedMcBride
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lentz targets the head (91% of attacks) — McBride absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯McBride targets the head (73% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lentz
RND
McBride
0/0R00/0
Lentz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
McBride · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
McBride · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R2
Nik LentzRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09