UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos
Zagreb, Croatia
10 Apr 2016
Heavyweight
VS
44%
Ngannou
56%
Blaydes
Win Probability
FN
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
17 – 3
6'4"83" reachOrthodox39 yrs6-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 43
Curtis
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
19 – 6
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Blaydes

This is a genuine toss-up — Ngannou at 44% vs Blaydes at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ngannou has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Blaydes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Blaydes has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ngannou
Blaydes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
83"+
Reach
80"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ngannou
Blaydes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.0
53.9
70.4
Performance Avg
53.4
60
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
81
Ngannou
Blaydes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
46%
Strike Accuracy
56%
9.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.4
9 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
9
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
20Distance9
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Ngannou
Blaydes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ngannou
Blaydes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
8
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
21/25 fights
Ngannou
Blaydes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
81
6-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Ngannou
Blaydes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
50%
9
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ngannou
Blaydes
Striking9.2 / 6.4Volume2.4 / 4.8Grappling0.9 / 1.0Wrestling0.6 / 0.7Submission0.8 / 0.0Pressure8.4 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.4
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Ngannou
Strike Zones
Blaydes
Ngannou
Attacking
20HEAD0BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Blaydes
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD0BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ngannou targets the head (95% of attacks) — Blaydes absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Blaydes targets the head (82% of attacks) — Ngannou absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ngannou
RND
Blaydes
0/0R00/0

Ngannou · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.2W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.7W5.0W6.6L6.7L5.9W5.0W5.0W6.1W6.2W6.2W2015-122017-012018-112021-032022-01
WinLossTrend

Blaydes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2L5.2W4.5W4.2W4.5W5.5W1.9L4.5W5.2W5.1W5.8W3.3L5.6W5.5W7.4W2.7L7.0W3.9L4.8W7.5L2016-042018-062020-062023-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Ngannou · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Ciryl GaneRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01
W · KO · R2
Stipe MiocicRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Junior Dos SantosRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02

Blaydes · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Josh HokitRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R2
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04

News & Media

Francis Ngannou · Curtis Blaydes
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