UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
New York City, USA
15 Nov 2025
Middleweight
VS
46%
Daukaus
54%
Meerschaert
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Meerschaert
This is a genuine toss-up — Daukaus at 46% vs Meerschaert at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Meerschaert throws more volume but Daukaus connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Daukaus's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Meerschaert has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Daukaus
Meerschaert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
76"
Reach
+77"
33+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Daukaus
Meerschaert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.7
56.7
49.0
Performance Avg
48.2
48
Quality of Victory
50
33
Momentum Score
91
Daukaus
Meerschaert
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance0
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Daukaus
Meerschaert
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
7.3
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Daukaus
Meerschaert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/21 fights
Chin rating based on
26/59 fights
Daukaus
Meerschaert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
91
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Daukaus
Meerschaert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
11
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Daukaus
Meerschaert
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
7.3
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.1
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
9.2
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
DaukausMeerschaert
Strike Zones
Daukaus
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedMeerschaert
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Daukaus targets the head (100% of attacks) — Meerschaert absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Daukaus
RND
Meerschaert
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Daukaus · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Meerschaert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Daukaus · Last 5
Upcoming
Bo NickalUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 6.1Submission
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Michel PereiraRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R1
Roman DolidzeRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
Meerschaert · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1Submission
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Reinier de RidderRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11