UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
6 Oct 2018
Lightweight
VS
45%
Maynard
55%
Lentz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:19
GM
Gray Maynard
13 – 7
5'9"70" reachOrthodox47 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
NL
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30 – 12
Well-Rounded3-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lentz

This is a genuine toss-up — Maynard at 45% vs Lentz at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lentz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Maynard's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lentz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Maynard
Lentz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
47
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Maynard
Lentz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.3
16.0
41.4
Performance Avg
45.3
28
Quality of Victory
35
60
Momentum Score
53
Maynard
Lentz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.1
40%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
11
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance8
0Clinch1
0Ground2
Maynard
Lentz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maynard
Lentz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20 fights
Chin rating based on
25/42 fights
Maynard
Lentz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
53
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Maynard
Lentz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
36%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maynard
Lentz
Striking2.1 / 3.4Volume8.5 / 6.4Grappling2.2 / 2.7Wrestling1.5 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 1.4Pressure2.5 / 4.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
2.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
Maynard
Strike Zones
Lentz
Maynard
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Lentz
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maynard targets the head (88% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Lentz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Maynard absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maynard
RND
Lentz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Maynard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.9W4.5W4.5W4.5W3.4L5.0W1.5L1.5L2.8L5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W2.8L2007-092009-092013-052016-122018-10
WinLossTrend

Lentz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W5.5L4.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.4L4.5W5.2W7.5L5.2W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.2L6.9L6.8L2009-092012-012015-052018-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Maynard · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Nik LentzRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Teruto IshiharaRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · 2017-07
L · Dec · R3
Ryan HallRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Fernando BrunoRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Alexander YakovlevRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04

Lentz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

News & Media

Gray Maynard · Nik Lentz
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