★ Championship Bout · Interim Middleweight
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Atlanta, USA
13 Apr 2019
Interim Middleweight
VS
40%
Gastelum
60%
Adesanya
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Adesanya
Adesanya holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Gastelum has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Adesanya has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Adesanya connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Adesanya has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gastelum
Adesanya
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'4"
71"
Reach
+80"
34+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Gastelum
Adesanya
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
63.4
47.4
Performance Avg
61.2
42
Quality of Victory
56
28
Momentum Score
100
Gastelum
Adesanya
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
32
1
Body
1
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
15Distance30
0Clinch0
0Ground7
Gastelum
Adesanya
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Adesanya
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
18
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Gastelum
Adesanya
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
100
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Gastelum
Adesanya
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
39%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Adesanya
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
GastelumAdesanya
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedAdesanya
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (73% of attacks) — Adesanya absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Adesanya targets the head (86% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Adesanya
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R30/0
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Adesanya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Adesanya · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Joe PyferRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Sub · R4
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.3Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
W · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 7.2KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04