UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Welterweight
VS
37%
Price
63%
Smith
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:03
Niko
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16 – 11
6'0"76" reachOrthodox36 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 48
Jacobe
Jacobe Smith
"Cobe"
12 – 0
Knockout Artist3-fight win streak30 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'10"
CFR 81

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smith

Smith holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Price has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Price's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Price
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
72"
36
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Price
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.4
81.3
46.0
Performance Avg
73.9
49
Quality of Victory
57
65
Momentum Score
100
Price
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
4.6
46%
Strike Accuracy
64%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
12
1
Body
1
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance5
2Clinch1
3Ground7
Price
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Price
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
100
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Price
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Price
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Price
Smith
Striking5.8 / 8.7Volume2.8 / 2.0Grappling2.6 / 2.7Wrestling1.8 / 1.9Submission2.5 / 3.3Pressure6.5 / 10.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
Price
Strike Zones
Smith
Price
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY5LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Smith
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY5LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Price targets the head (60% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (92% of attacks) — Price absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Price
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0

Price · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W4.2L5.2W6.1W3.0L5.1W3.8L5.0W7.0L6.1L4.5W5.1L1.8L4.5W5.9L5.1L1.9L2.3L2016-122018-092021-072024-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.9W5.0W2025-012025-062026-02
WinLossTrend

Price · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Sub · R2
Jacobe SmithRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Smith · Last 3

W · KO · R1
Josiah HarrellRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Preston ParsonsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

News & Media

Niko Price · Jacobe Smith
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