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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Las Vegas, USA
27 Sept 2014
Lightweight
VS
34%
Tuck
66%
Lee
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JT
Jon Tuck
"Super Saiyan"
105
5'11"73" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
KL
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
188
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox77" reach5'9"
CFR 35
★ Official Result
Kevin LeewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jon Tuck · UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lee
Actual result
Lee wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Lee holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Tuck has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Lee has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
TuckLee
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
Tuck
Lee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
73"
Reach
+77"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tuck
Lee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.4
35.2
45.2
Performance Avg
48.3
46
Quality of Victory
42
54
Momentum Score
53
Tuck
Lee
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.4
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
6.6
Style: Pressure
5.6
2.9
Style: Volume
4.1
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
27
0
Body
5
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance6
0Clinch2
1Ground24
Tuck
Lee
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.6
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
3.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.6
2
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tuck
Lee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
24
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
4
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
Strikes absorbed / min
9/15 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Tuck
Lee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
53
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Tuck
Lee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
55%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tuck
Lee
Striking3.4 / 3.0Volume2.9 / 4.1Grappling4.6 / 3.8Wrestling3.2 / 2.6Submission5.0 / 3.6Pressure6.6 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Tuck
Strike Zones
Lee
Tuck
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD5BODY0LEGS32 absorbed
Lee
Attacking
27HEAD5BODY0LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tuck targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Lee targets the head (84% of attacks) — Tuck absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tuck
RND
Lee
0/0R00/0

Tuck · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Drew Dober
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Sub · R1
Takanori Gomi
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Damien Brown
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Josh Emmett
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Sub · R1
Tae Hyun Bang
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Daniel Rodriguez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R3
Charles Oliveira
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · KO · R1
Gregor Gillespie
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · Sub · R4
Rafael Dos Anjos
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

News & Media

Jon Tuck · Kevin Lee
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