UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Las Vegas, USA
27 Sept 2014
Lightweight
VS
34%
Tuck
66%
Lee
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JT
Jon Tuck
"Super Saiyan"
10 – 5
5'11"73" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
KL
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox77" reach5'9"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lee

Lee holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Tuck has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lee has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lee has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tuck
Lee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
73"
Reach
+77"
41
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tuck
Lee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.4
35.2
45.2
Performance Avg
48.3
46
Quality of Victory
42
54
Momentum Score
53
Tuck
Lee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
39%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
27
0
Body
5
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance6
0Clinch2
1Ground24
Tuck
Lee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tuck
Lee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
24
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/15 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Tuck
Lee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
53
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Tuck
Lee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
55%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tuck
Lee
Striking3.4 / 3.0Volume2.9 / 4.1Grappling4.6 / 3.8Wrestling3.2 / 2.6Submission5.0 / 3.6Pressure6.6 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Tuck
Strike Zones
Lee
Tuck
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD5BODY0LEGS32 absorbed
Lee
Attacking
27HEAD5BODY0LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tuck targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Lee targets the head (84% of attacks) — Tuck absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tuck
RND
Lee
0/0R00/0

Tuck · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.6L5.5L5.0W6.7L2012-112014-092016-112018-08
WinLossTrend

Lee · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.6L4.5W6.0W5.2W5.2W5.8W3.3L5.0W5.5L3.6L5.0W4.2L6.4L3.1L2014-022015-122017-062019-112023-07
WinLossTrend

Tuck · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Drew DoberRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Sub · R1
Takanori GomiRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Damien BrownRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Josh EmmettRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Sub · R1
Tae Hyun BangRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · Sub · R4
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

News & Media

Jon Tuck · Kevin Lee
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