METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Las Vegas, USA
17 Dec 2022
Featherweight
VS
50%
Caceres
50%
Erosa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:04
★ Official Result
Alex CacereswinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:04
def. Julian Erosa · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Caceres
→
Actual result
Caceres wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Caceres at 50% vs Erosa at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Erosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Erosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Erosa has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CaceresErosa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Caceres
Erosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+74"
38
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Caceres
Erosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
39.6
42.2
Performance Avg
46.2
34
Quality of Victory
44
76
Momentum Score
26
Caceres
Erosa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
2.5
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
2
3
Body
3
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
13Distance10
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Caceres
Erosa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.4
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Erosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Caceres
Erosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Caceres
Erosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Erosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
CaceresErosa
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedErosa
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (56% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Erosa targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Erosa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Erosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
Erosa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7Decision
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W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6Submission
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