UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Las Vegas, USA
17 Dec 2022
Featherweight
VS
50%
Caceres
50%
Erosa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:04
Alex
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21 – 15
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
Julian
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31 – 14
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Caceres

This is a genuine toss-up — Caceres at 50% vs Erosa at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Erosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Erosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Erosa has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Caceres
Erosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+74"
37
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Caceres
Erosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
39.6
42.2
Performance Avg
46.2
34
Quality of Victory
44
76
Momentum Score
26
Caceres
Erosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.5
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
2
3
Body
3
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
13Distance10
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Caceres
Erosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.4
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Erosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Caceres
Erosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Caceres
Erosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Caceres
Erosa
Striking1.7 / 3.2Volume6.1 / 3.7Grappling3.5 / 4.4Wrestling2.5 / 3.0Submission2.5 / 4.4Pressure3.8 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Caceres
Strike Zones
Erosa
Caceres
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY4LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY5LEGS10 absorbed
Erosa
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY5LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY4LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (56% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Erosa targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Caceres
RND
Erosa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Caceres · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0101.5L2.8L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.0L5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W7.1L2.8L4.2W5.5L4.5W2.3L4.5W5.3W5.0W4.5W5.4W6.3L5.2W5.4W6.5L6.6L2011-032014-072017-112022-032024-05
WinLossTrend

Erosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W2.8L1.5L7.0L4.7L6.6W5.7W1.7L6.3W4.5W4.6W1.7L2.8L5.1W5.6W5.5W6.7L3.9L2015-122020-062022-092025-042026-03
WinLossTrend

Caceres · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03

Erosa · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

News & Media

Alex Caceres · Julian Erosa
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