UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
Las Vegas, USA
6 Apr 2024
Featherweight
VS
57%
Hernandez
43%
Jackson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hernandez
This is a genuine toss-up — Hernandez at 57% vs Jackson at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Hernandez throws more volume but Jackson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jackson has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hernandez
Jackson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
72"+
Reach
71"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Hernandez
Jackson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
40.5
47.4
Performance Avg
43.0
42
Quality of Victory
38
90
Momentum Score
59
Hernandez
Jackson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
0
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch6
3Ground1
Hernandez
Jackson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Jackson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
28
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
Hernandez
Jackson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
59
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Hernandez
Jackson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Jackson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
HernandezJackson
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedJackson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jackson targets the head (44% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Jackson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Jackson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7Decision
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