UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Lightweight
VS
42%
Johnson
58%
Azaitar
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:03
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Ottman
Ottman Azaitar
"Bulldozer"
13 – 3
Knockout Artist3-fight slide36 yrsSwitch71" reach5'8"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Azaitar

This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 42% vs Azaitar at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Azaitar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.

Azaitar has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Azaitar has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Johnson
Azaitar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
71"
39
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Johnson
Azaitar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
50.8
42.5
Performance Avg
52.0
38
Quality of Victory
60
35
Momentum Score
33
Johnson
Azaitar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
4.2
39%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
3
0
Body
2
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Johnson
Azaitar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Azaitar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
34
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
5/16 fights
Johnson
Azaitar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
33
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Johnson
Azaitar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Azaitar
Striking4.8 / 10.0Volume6.0 / 0.8Grappling1.5 / 0.0Wrestling1.1 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Johnson
Strike Zones
Azaitar
Johnson
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Azaitar
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (88% of attacks) — Azaitar absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Azaitar targets the head (50% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Azaitar
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Azaitar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0105.0W5.0W1.7L2.2L2.8L2019-092020-092022-112023-072024-12
WinLossTrend

Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Azaitar · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Francisco PradoRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R1
Khama WorthyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Teemu PackalenRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09

News & Media

Michael Johnson · Ottman Azaitar
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