METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Lightweight
VS
42%
Johnson
58%
Azaitar
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:03
★ Official Result
Michael JohnsonwinsKO/TKOR2 · 2:03
def. Ottman Azaitar · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Azaitar
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 42% vs Azaitar at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Azaitar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Azaitar has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Azaitar has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonAzaitar
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Azaitar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
71"
40
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Johnson
Azaitar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
50.8
42.5
Performance Avg
52.0
38
Quality of Victory
60
35
Momentum Score
33
Johnson
Azaitar
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
4.2
39%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
3
0
Body
2
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Johnson
Azaitar
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Azaitar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
34
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
5/16 fights
Johnson
Azaitar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
33
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Johnson
Azaitar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Azaitar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
JohnsonAzaitar
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedAzaitar
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (88% of attacks) — Azaitar absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Azaitar targets the head (50% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Azaitar
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Azaitar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Azaitar · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Francisco PradoRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R1
Khama WorthyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Teemu PackalenRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09