UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Las Vegas, USA
2 Oct 2021
Welterweight
VS
38%
Oliveira
62%
Price
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Price
Price holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Oliveira has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Price throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Price has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Price
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
76"
Reach
76"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Price
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
48.4
46.5
Performance Avg
46.0
43
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
65
Oliveira
Price
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
22
12
Body
6
8
Leg
6
RangeRange
39Distance26
0Clinch1
0Ground7
Oliveira
Price
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Price
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
5
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Oliveira
Price
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
65
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Price
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Price
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
OliveiraPrice
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedPrice
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (49% of attacks) — Price absorbs 49% of strikes there
🎯Price targets the head (65% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Price
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Price · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Price · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Sub · R2
Jacobe SmithRating 5.1Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06