UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Featherweight
VS
36%
Edgar
64%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stephens
Stephens holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Edgar has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Stephens throws more volume but Edgar connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Edgar's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Edgar
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+71"
44
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Edgar
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.4
45.0
48.0
Performance Avg
41.1
39
Quality of Victory
40
68
Momentum Score
76
Edgar
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
5
2
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance7
2Clinch1
2Ground0
Edgar
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edgar
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/34 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Edgar
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
68
76
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Edgar
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
47%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edgar
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
EdgarStephens
Strike Zones
Edgar
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedStephens
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edgar targets the head (86% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (63% of attacks) — Edgar absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edgar
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Edgar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Edgar · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Chris GutierrezRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
L · KO · R3
Marlon VeraRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · KO · R1
Cory SandhagenRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · Dec · R5
Pedro MunhozRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Chan Sung JungRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10