UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann
Nashville, USA
1 Apr 2009
Lightweight
VS
25%
Tibau
75%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
GT
Gleison Tibau
33 – 14
5'10"71" reachSouthpaw42 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
Well-Rounded7-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stephens

Stephens is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Stephens has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tibau's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tibau
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
42
Age
+40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tibau
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
45.0
43.2
Performance Avg
41.1
34
Quality of Victory
40
74
Momentum Score
76
Tibau
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.3
35%
Strike Accuracy
42%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
0
Body
6
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch9
0Ground1
Tibau
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tibau
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
28/47 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Tibau
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
76
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Tibau
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
47%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
4
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tibau
Stephens
Striking1.8 / 5.5Volume6.6 / 4.6Grappling3.6 / 1.1Wrestling2.5 / 0.8Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Tibau
Strike Zones
Stephens
Tibau
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD6BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Stephens
Attacking
2HEAD6BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tibau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the body (60% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tibau
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0

Tibau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.7W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W2.0L4.0L3.5L5.5L2006-112009-042011-112014-072018-06
WinLossTrend

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Tibau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

News & Media

Gleison Tibau · Jeremy Stephens
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