UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon
Hollywood, USA
25 Jan 2007
Lightweight
VS
30%
Thomas
70%
Guida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DT
Din Thomas
"Dinyero"
26 – 9
5'9"Orthodox49 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Thomas connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Thomas's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Thomas
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
Reach
70"
49
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thomas
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
44.2
43.1
Performance Avg
40.7
35
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
78
Thomas
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.0
39%
Strike Accuracy
36%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
5
0
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance6
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Thomas
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thomas
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/35 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Thomas
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Thomas
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
39%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thomas
Guida
Striking1.1 / 2.1Volume5.9 / 5.9Grappling4.6 / 3.7Wrestling3.3 / 2.6Submission4.0 / 2.8Pressure4.5 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Thomas
Strike Zones
Guida
Thomas
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY3LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Guida
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY3LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thomas targets the head (80% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (83% of attacks) — Thomas absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thomas
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0

Thomas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W5.8W1.5L5.5L2001-062003-022007-052008-04
WinLossTrend

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Thomas · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Josh NeerRating 5.5
Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Kenny FlorianRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian · 2007-09
W · Sub · R2
Jeremy StephensRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 71: Liddell vs Jackson · 2007-05
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon · 2007-01
W · Sub · R2
Rich ClementiRating 5.2
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
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News & Media

Din Thomas · Clay Guida
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