METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon
Hollywood, USA
25 Jan 2007
Lightweight
VS
30%
Thomas
70%
Guida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Din ThomaswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Clay Guida · UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Thomas wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Guida is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Thomas connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Thomas's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ThomasGuida
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Thomas
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
Reach
70"
49
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thomas
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
44.2
43.1
Performance Avg
40.7
35
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
78
Thomas
Guida
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
1.0
39%
Strike Accuracy
36%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
5
0
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance6
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Thomas
Guida
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thomas
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/35 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Thomas
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Thomas
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
39%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thomas
Guida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
ThomasGuida
Strike Zones
Thomas
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedGuida
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thomas targets the head (80% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (83% of attacks) — Thomas absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thomas
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
Thomas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Thomas · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Josh NeerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
L · Sub · R1
Kenny FlorianRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian · 2007-09
W · Sub · R2
Jeremy StephensRating 5.8Submission
UFC 71: Liddell vs Jackson · 2007-05
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon · 2007-01
W · Sub · R2
Rich ClementiRating 5.2Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04