UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Las Vegas, USA
4 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
48%
Vannata
52%
Flowers
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Flowers
This is a genuine toss-up — Vannata at 48% vs Flowers at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Flowers has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Vannata throws more volume but Flowers connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Vannata's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vannata
Flowers
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
34
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Vannata
Flowers
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.9
50.7
37.9
Performance Avg
43.0
41
Quality of Victory
55
70
Momentum Score
43
Vannata
Flowers
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
63%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
1
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Vannata
Flowers
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Vannata
Flowers
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Vannata
Flowers
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Vannata
Flowers
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vannata
Flowers
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
VannataFlowers
Strike Zones
Vannata
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedFlowers
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vannata targets the head (40% of attacks) — Flowers absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Flowers targets the head (33% of attacks) — Vannata absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vannata
RND
Flowers
0/0R00/0
Vannata · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Flowers · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Vannata · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Darrius FlowersRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.9Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Charles JourdainRating 2.3Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Mike GrundyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
Flowers · Last 4
W · KO · R2
Lando VannataRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Evan ElderRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 3.8Submission
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