UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Seattle, USA
8 Dec 2012
Lightweight
VS
30%
Edwards
70%
Stephens
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stephens
Stephens is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Stephens throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Edwards
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
49
Age
+40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.3
45.0
47.6
Performance Avg
41.1
46
Quality of Victory
40
85
Momentum Score
76
Edwards
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
42%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance4
0Clinch1
2Ground0
Edwards
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/64 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Edwards
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
76
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Edwards
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
47%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
EdwardsStephens
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedStephens
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (63% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (60% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Akbarh ArreolaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · Sub · R3
Piotr HallmannRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06
Upcoming
Yancy MedeirosUFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
Daron CruickshankRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Isaac Vallie-FlaggRating 5.5Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10