UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
Las Vegas, USA
26 May 2012
Lightweight
VS
76%
Barboza
24%
Varner
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:23
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barboza
Barboza is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Varner throws more volume but Barboza connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barboza's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Varner has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barboza
Varner
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
75"+
Reach
71"
40+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barboza
Varner
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.9
13.9
46.3
Performance Avg
41.1
40
Quality of Victory
46
60
Momentum Score
33
Barboza
Varner
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
46%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
9 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
17
0
Body
3
10
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground9
Barboza
Varner
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barboza
Varner
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/38 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Barboza
Varner
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Barboza
Varner
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
9
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barboza
Varner
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
BarbozaVarner
Strike Zones
Barboza
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedVarner
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barboza targets the legs (91% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Varner targets the head (85% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barboza
RND
Varner
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barboza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Varner · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Barboza · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
Varner · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 4.5Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12