UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2016
Welterweight
VS
45%
Oliveira
55%
Means
Win Probability
AO
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22 – 12
5'11"76" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 30
Tim
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33 – 17
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Means

This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 45% vs Means at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Means throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Oliveira
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
76"+
Reach
75"
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
36.5
46.5
Performance Avg
45.2
43
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
40
Oliveira
Means
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
9
3
Body
6
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance6
1Clinch6
0Ground5
Oliveira
Means
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Oliveira
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
53%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
3
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Means
Striking4.7 / 5.0Volume4.0 / 4.8Grappling3.0 / 2.2Wrestling2.1 / 1.5Submission2.7 / 1.3Pressure6.0 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Means
Oliveira
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD6BODY2LEGS17 absorbed
Means
Attacking
9HEAD6BODY2LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Means absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (53% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 53% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Means
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.2L5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W3.8L5.5L5.8L5.1W4.5W3.6L2.4L6.2L3.4L2015-032016-102018-122021-042022-03
WinLossTrend

Means · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L6.1L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5W1.9L5.2W5.2W2.8L4.5W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.2L5.0W3.7L4.5W4.5W4.8W3.4L6.1L2.8L5.5W3.3L1.7L2012-022015-042018-112022-102024-10
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · Last 5

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KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2
Decision
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Randy BrownRating 2.4
Submission
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L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6
Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5
Decision
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Means · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeRating 1.7
Submission
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L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3
KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoRating 5.5
KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoRating 2.8
Submission
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L · Dec · R3
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Decision
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News & Media

Alex Oliveira · Tim Means
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