UFC 78: Validation
Newark, USA
17 Nov 2007
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Silva
43%
Alexander
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:25
TS
Thiago Silva
19 – 6
6'2"74" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 25
HA
Houston Alexander
"The Assassin"
17 – 15
Knockout Artist4-fight slide54 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'0"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Silva

This is a genuine toss-up — Silva at 57% vs Alexander at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alexander has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alexander has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Silva
Alexander
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"+
Reach
72"
43+
Age
54
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Silva
Alexander
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.7
18.4
60.6
Performance Avg
49.3
54
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
46
Silva
Alexander
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
2.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
54%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
0
5
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance0
3Clinch2
15Ground0
Silva
Alexander
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Silva
Alexander
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
42
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/32 fights
Silva
Alexander
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Silva
Alexander
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Silva
Alexander
Striking10.0 / 10.0Volume2.5 / 0.7Grappling0.3 / 0.0Wrestling0.2 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.1 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Silva
Strike Zones
Alexander
Silva
Attacking
16HEAD5BODY1LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Alexander
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD5BODY1LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (73% of attacks) — Alexander absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Alexander targets the body (50% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Silva
RND
Alexander
0/0R00/0

Silva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W2007-052008-052010-012013-10
WinLossTrend

Alexander · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0105.0W5.0W1.5L1.5L1.5L5.5L2007-052007-092007-112008-042008-092009-12
WinLossTrend

Silva · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Rafael CavalcanteRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
Upcoming
Stanislav Nedkov
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11
L · Dec · R3
Alexander GustafssonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
Upcoming
Brandon Vera
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01

Alexander · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kevin FergusonRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale · 2009-12
L · Sub · R1
Eric SchaferRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer · 2008-09
L · KO · R1
James IrvinRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
L · KO · R1
Thiago SilvaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11
W · KO · R1
Alessio SakaraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 75: Champion vs Champion · 2007-09

News & Media

Thiago Silva · Houston Alexander
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