METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
61%
Namajunas
39%
Esparza
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Carla EsparzawinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Rose Namajunas · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Namajunas
→
Actual result
Esparza wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
Namajunas holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Esparza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Namajunas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Namajunas's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Esparza has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NamajunasEsparza
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Namajunas
Esparza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'1"
65"+
Reach
63"
34+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Namajunas
Esparza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.4
40.7
54.8
Performance Avg
45.9
49
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
60
Namajunas
Esparza
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
3.3
5.9
Style: Volume
7.7
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
2
5
Body
0
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Namajunas
Esparza
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.4
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Namajunas
Esparza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
38
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/23 fights
Chin rating based on
16/28 fights
Namajunas
Esparza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
60
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Namajunas
Esparza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
20%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Namajunas
Esparza
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
NamajunasEsparza
Strike Zones
Namajunas
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedEsparza
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Namajunas targets the head (54% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Esparza targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Namajunas absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Namajunas
RND
Esparza
0/0R00/0
Namajunas · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickDecision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Erin BlanchfieldDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
W · Dec · R5
Tracy CortezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Amanda RibasDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasDecision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07