★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
61%
Namajunas
39%
Esparza
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Namajunas
Namajunas holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Esparza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Namajunas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Namajunas has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Namajunas's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Esparza has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Namajunas
Esparza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'1"
65"+
Reach
63"
33+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Namajunas
Esparza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.2
40.7
55.9
Performance Avg
45.9
51
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
60
Namajunas
Esparza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
2
5
Body
0
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Namajunas
Esparza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Namajunas
Esparza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
38
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/23 fights
Chin rating based on
16/28 fights
Namajunas
Esparza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
60
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Namajunas
Esparza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
20%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Namajunas
Esparza
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
NamajunasEsparza
Strike Zones
Namajunas
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedEsparza
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Namajunas targets the head (54% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Esparza targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Namajunas absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Namajunas
RND
Esparza
0/0R00/0
Namajunas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Esparza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Namajunas · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Erin BlanchfieldRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
W · Dec · R5
Tracy CortezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Amanda RibasRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07