UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Las Vegas, USA
1 Mar 2025
Flyweight
VS
55%
Kape
45%
Almabayev
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:16
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kape
This is a genuine toss-up — Kape at 55% vs Almabayev at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kape has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Striking split: Kape throws more volume but Almabayev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Kape
Almabayev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
65"
32
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kape
Almabayev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.6
57.9
61.4
Performance Avg
53.7
56
Quality of Victory
32
89
Momentum Score
83
Kape
Almabayev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
0.5
59%
Strike Accuracy
59%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
5
6
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance7
9Clinch1
6Ground0
Kape
Almabayev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kape
Almabayev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/29 fights
Chin rating based on
8/26 fights
Kape
Almabayev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
83
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kape
Almabayev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
33%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kape
Almabayev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.7
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
KapeAlmabayev
Strike Zones
Kape
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedAlmabayev
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kape targets the head (79% of attacks) — Almabayev absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Almabayev targets the head (63% of attacks) — Kape absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kape
RND
Almabayev
0/0R00/0
Kape · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Almabayev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Kape · Last 5
Upcoming
Kyoji HoriguchiUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 6.9Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Almabayev · Last 5
Upcoming
Charles JohnsonUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Sub · R3
Alex PerezRating 6.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10