Manel Kape vs Asu Almabayev — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev

Las Vegas, USA

1 Mar 2025

Flyweight

55%

Kape

45%

Almabayev

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 3 · 2:16

Manel Kape

"StarBoy"

22 – 7

5'5"68" reachSouthpaw32 yrs4-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 73

Asu Almabayev

"Zulfikar"

23 – 3

Well-Rounded3-fight win streak32 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"

CFR 60

★ Official Result

Manel KapewinsKO/TKOR3 · 2:16

def. Asu Almabayev · UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Kape

→

Actual result

Kape wins

KO/TKO · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Kape at 55% vs Almabayev at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Kape has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

KapeAlmabayev

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Kape

Almabayev

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'5"+

Height

5'4"

68"+

Reach

65"

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Kape

Almabayev

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

72.8

59.7

65.8

Performance Avg

55.5

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Kape

Almabayev

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

8.9

/ 10

1.8

/ 10

7.4

Style: Pressure

5.6

3.5

Style: Volume

6.3

6 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

13Distance7

9Clinch1

6Ground0

Kape

Almabayev

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.6

/ 10

4.8

/ 10

0.4

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.4

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

4.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Kape

Almabayev

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R3.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

3 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

11/29 fights

Chin rating based on

8/26 fights

Kape

Almabayev

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 🔥 win streak

W · KO · R3

W · KO · R1

W · KO · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

Kape

Almabayev

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

75%

43%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kape

Almabayev

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

8.9

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.8

0.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.8

0.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.4

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.3

7.4

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.6

3.5

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.3

Kape

Strike Zones

Almabayev

Kape

Attacking

28 landed

Absorbing

8 absorbed

Almabayev

Attacking

8 landed

Absorbing

28 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Kape targets the head (79% of attacks) — Almabayev absorbs 79% of strikes there

🎯Almabayev targets the head (63% of attacks) — Kape absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kape

RND

Almabayev

0/0R00/0

Kape · Last 5

W · KO · R3

Kyoji Horiguchi

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

W · KO · R1

Brandon Royval

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12

W · KO · R3

Asu Almabayev

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03

W · KO · R3

Bruno Silva

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

L · Dec · R3

Muhammad Mokaev

Decision

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

Almabayev · Last 5

W · Sub · R3

Charles Johnson

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06

W · Sub · R3

Alex Perez

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

W · Dec · R3

Jose Ochoa

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07

L · KO · R3

Manel Kape

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Matheus Nicolau

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10

News & Media

Manel Kape · Asu Almabayev

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